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MASIMO CORP (MASI)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2025 results are not yet filed; Masimo last reported Q3 2025 with GAAP revenue $371.5M (+8.2% Y/Y), non-GAAP EPS $1.32 (+38% Y/Y) and non-GAAP operating margin 27.1% (+450 bps Y/Y), while tightening FY25 revenue and raising margin/EPS guidance; Q4 includes an extra selling week and management expects consumables to accelerate into year-end .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 non-GAAP EPS to $5.40–$5.55 (from $5.20–$5.45), operating margin to 27.3%–27.7% (from 27.0%–27.5%); revenue narrowed to $1.510–$1.530B (from $1.505–$1.535B) .
  • Tariffs remain a headwind (~140 bps hit to Q3 gross margin and operating margin), but mitigation reduced FY25 tariff impact to ~$16–$17M from $33–$37M previously; Q4 will see stepped-up tariff cost recognition through inventory flow-through .
  • Strategic catalysts into Q4: expanded Philips partnership (share gains opportunity), continued capital return (buybacks funded by Sound United sale), and a November jury verdict awarding Masimo $634.3M against Apple in patent litigation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Earnings quality and leverage: Q3 non-GAAP operating margin expanded 450 bps Y/Y to 27.1%; non-GAAP EPS +38% to $1.32, supported by cost optimization and operating efficiency initiatives .
    • Contracting and backlog indicators: Q3 incremental new contracts $124M (best Q3 on record); unrecognized contract revenue to be recognized in next 12 months rose 17% Y/Y to $507M; shipped 66,000 technology boards/instruments, +8% Y/Y .
    • Strategic focus and partnerships: CEO underscored momentum in core healthcare and expanded Philips partnership to accelerate device integration and AI algorithms; new AI-enabled sensor roadmap (e.g., opioid-induced respiratory depression) targeted for 2026 launches .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Mix and comps: Consumables grew just 1% Y/Y in Q3 on tough comps (20% growth in Q3’24); capital equipment rebounded +67% Y/Y off a weak base; management expects normalization as comps roll off .
    • Tariff drag: Q3 gross margin declined 70 bps Y/Y to 62.2% due to ~140 bps tariff headwind despite ~+70 bps operational gains; tariffs increased Q3 cost of sales by $5M .
    • Distribution shifts and accounting frictions: Move from direct to distributor in some international markets creates a ~$6M FY25 revenue headwind (neutral to profitability); leasing (ASC 842) continues to shift some capital revenue recognition timing .

Financial Results

Note: Q4 2025 not yet reported as of this writing. Latest quarterly trend below.

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
GAAP Revenue ($M)$368.5 $372.0 $370.9 $371.5
Non-GAAP Revenue ($M)$368.4 $371.0 $370.3 $371.2
GAAP Diluted EPS (continuing ops)N/A (consol. GAAP diluted EPS -$6.52) $0.86 $0.82 $0.99
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$1.80 $1.36 $1.33 $1.32
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %22.4% 28.8% 27.5% 27.1%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %63.0% (Healthcare) 63.1% 62.9% 62.2%

Segment/Category mix (as reported):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Consumable & Service Revenue ($M)$320 $338 $316
Capital & Other Revenue ($M)$51 $32 $55

Key operating KPIs:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Technology boards/instruments shipped (units)63,100 66,000
Incremental value of new contracts ($M)$80 $124
Unrecognized contract revenue ($M)$1,720 $1,714
Unrecognized contract revenue expected next 12 months ($M)N/A$507
Operating cash flow ($M)~$62 (healthcare) $57

Estimates comparison for Q4 2025: S&P Global consensus was not retrievable at this time due to a rate limit. We will update with beat/miss once data is accessible. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Aug 5, 2025)Current Guidance (Nov 4, 2025)Change
Non-GAAP RevenueFY2025$1.505–$1.535B $1.510–$1.530B Tightened (midpoint +$0.0B)
Non-GAAP Operating MarginFY202527.0%–27.5% (incl. tariffs) 27.3%–27.7% (incl. tariffs) Raised
Non-GAAP EPSFY2025$5.20–$5.45 (incl. tariffs) $5.40–$5.55 (incl. tariffs) Raised
Non-GAAP Op. ProfitFY2025$406–$422M (incl. tariffs) $412–$424M (incl. tariffs) Raised (midpoint)
Tariff impact (COGS)FY2025$17–$19M $16–$17M Lowered
EPS excl. tariffsFY2025$5.45–$5.70 $5.62–$5.79 Raised

Management reiterated that Q4 2025 has an extra selling week; benefit is largely offset by discontinued products and distributor model shifts in certain international markets .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2025 (Q-2)Q3 2025 (Q-1)Q4 2025 (Current period status)
AI/Technology initiativesRedeploying advanced algorithms into clinical sensors; example: AF detection via pulse ox; roadmap for intelligent monitoring .Expanding AI across devices with Philips; OIRD algorithm targeting hospital integration for 2026 .Investor Day (Dec 3) to detail pipeline and long-term outlook .
Supply chain/tariffsTariff mitigation cut FY25 impact >50% (to $17–$19M); margin headwind 120–130 bps; ongoing mitigation plans .Tariff drag ~140 bps in Q3; FY25 impact further reduced to $16–$17M; path to halve annualized COGS impact over time .Expect stepped-up tariff cost recognition through Q4 via inventory flow-through .
Product performance (consumables vs capital)Consumables +8% (cc) Y/Y; capital -2% (cc) Y/Y; leases (ASC 842) a headwind to reported capital revenue .Consumables +1% Y/Y on tough comp; capital +67% Y/Y off weak base; two-year stack normalizes both .Management expects consumables to accelerate in Q4 (seasonality + large contracts) .
Regional/commercial executionNew leadership hires; US sales realigned to drive specialty pull-through; target 10–20% growth in adjacencies .Strongest Q3 contracting on record; next-12-month unrecognized revenue +17% Y/Y .Distributor model shift in some OUS markets (revenue timing headwind; neutral to margins) .
Regulatory/legalContinued Apple litigation costs excluded from non-GAAP; Sound United sale closed .Jury verdict awarded $634.3M to Masimo vs Apple (Nov 18) .

Management Commentary

  • “Revenues grew 8%, operating margin improved by 450 basis points, and EPS grew by 38%... We closed the sale of Sound United... and announced the expansion of our strategic partnership with Philips” — CEO Katie Szyman, Q3 PR .
  • “Our gross margin of 62.2% experienced a decline of 70 basis points compared to the prior year due to tariff impacts outweighing operational improvements... Tariffs increased our cost of sales by $5 million this quarter” — CFO Micah Young, Q3 call .
  • “We are tightening our full-year revenue guidance... raising our operating margin guidance... and raising our earnings per share guidance to be in the range of $5.40–$5.55” — CFO, Q3 call .
  • “Under [the Philips] partnership, Philips will expedite the adoption of our AI algorithm across additional devices and market segments... including the integration of capnography and the launch of next-gen wearables” — CEO, Q3 call .

Q&A Highlights

  • Consumables normalization: Q3 consumables +1% Y/Y due to prior-year strength; management expects stronger consumables in Q4 with contract-driven shipments .
  • Distributor model impact: Shift from direct-to-distributor in some OUS markets creates a ~$6M FY25 revenue headwind, neutral to earnings/margins; bulk in Q4 .
  • Philips partnership outlook: Masimo remains under-indexed in Philips’ installed base; sees runway to gain share over next five years while maintaining product mix .
  • Capital allocation: Post-Sound United, priority on buybacks at current valuation and tuck-in tech acquisitions ; $350M buybacks 3Q–4Q to date .
  • Tariffs: Annualized COGS impact after implemented mitigation estimated at ~200–260 bps, with potential to halve over time via further actions .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2025, FY2025, and FY2026 (revenue, EPS, EBITDA), but the request hit a daily limit; therefore, specific consensus figures are unavailable at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Directionally, management raised FY25 EPS and margin guidance in Q3, implying a stronger earnings exit rate into Q4 despite tariff headwinds and distribution shifts .
  • We will update beat/miss analysis vs consensus once SPGI estimates become accessible. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Setup into Q4 is constructive: raised FY25 EPS/margin guidance and messaging of stronger consumables in Q4 (plus an extra week) should support a healthy year-end print, while capital may be softer Q/Q on seasonality and mix .
  • Margin story intact despite tariffs: operational improvements and mitigation have outpaced tariff headwinds YTD, with a credible plan to further reduce annualized COGS impact over time .
  • Demand indicators robust: record Q3 contracting, higher next-12-month unrecognized revenue, and increased board shipments underscore durable demand and visibility .
  • Strategic levers: expanded Philips partnership (share gains), AI-enabled sensing roadmap (e.g., OIRD), and continued portfolio investment target multi-year growth beyond pulse oximetry .
  • Capital allocation supportive: sale of Sound United redeploys capital to buybacks and selective tuck-ins; share repurchases already added ~$0.08 to FY25 EPS guidance midpoint .
  • Legal tailwind: the $634.3M jury verdict vs Apple reinforces IP strength and may act as a sentiment catalyst, though timing/collection risk remains inherent to litigation outcomes .
  • Watch Q4 call for: consumables acceleration, tariff flow-through, distributor transition in OUS, Philips integration cadence, and 2026 framework (company plans to detail longer-term outlook at Investor Day) .

Appendix: Additional Q4 2025 Context

  • Investor Day scheduled for December 3, 2025, where management will outline strategy, product pipeline, and long-term financial outlook .
  • FY24 baselines: Healthcare revenue $1.395B (+9% Y/Y), non-GAAP EPS $4.40 (+16% Y/Y) .
  • Q4 seasonality: extra selling week provides ~1 pt to FY25 growth but largely offset by portfolio and channel changes, per CFO .